Prelims2
Welterweight
Anthony Rocco Martin vs Keita Nakamura
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee
·Boardwalk Hall
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Anthony Rocco Martin
Keita Nakamura
32%
68%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 0"
73"
28
Age
Δ 6y
34
17-7
Career record
Δ 4 pp
35-10-2
L1
Current streak
W1
8
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Martin: 56 sig / 0 TD ·
Nakamura: 24 sig / 2 TD
Anthony Rocco Martin
Keita Nakamura
31
Sig strikes landed
29
78
Sig strikes attempted
69
48
Total strikes landed
46
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.2
4.0
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
133s
Control time
143s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Anthony Rocco Martin
17-7
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
8 fights · 4-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. B…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare
—
Blue corner
W1
Keita Nakamura
"K-Taro"
35-10-2
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Saint Preux vs…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Do…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. L…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bispi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nel…
—