Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Raphael Assuncao
Rob Font
58%
42%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 5"
72"
36
Age
Δ 5y
31
29-10
Career record
Δ 5 pp
23-10
W3
Current streak
W1
12
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Assuncao: 54 sig / 2 TD ·
Font: 20 sig / 0 TD
Raphael Assuncao
Rob Font
54
Sig strikes landed
49
117
Sig strikes attempted
118
64
Total strikes landed
53
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.3
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
102s
Control time
62s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Raphael Assuncao
29-10
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
12 fights · 10-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pe…
—
W
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway
—
W
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
—
L
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes
—
W
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs S…
—
Blue corner
W1
Rob Font
23-10
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ma…
—
W
UFC 213: Romero vs. Whittaker
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournamen…
—
L
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—