🏆 Title fight
Main
Lightweight
Khabib Nurmagomedov vs Al Iaquinta
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta
·Barclays Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Al Iaquinta
95%
5%
Why
70"
Reach
70"
30
Age
Δ 1y
31
30-0
Career record
Δ 35 pp
15-7-1
W8
Current streak
W5
9
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Nurmagomedov: 134 sig / 6 TD ·
Iaquinta: 41 sig / 0 TD
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Al Iaquinta
85
Sig strikes landed
49
163
Sig strikes attempted
131
134
Total strikes landed
65
4.2
Takedowns landed
-0.1
9.7
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
500s
Control time
10s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Khabib Nurmagomedov
"The Eagle"
30-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
9 fights · 9-0
Last 5
W
UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm
—
W
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
—
W
UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans
—
W
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—
W
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
—
Blue corner
W5
Al Iaquinta
"Raging"
15-7-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
10 fights · 8-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lo…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas
—
W
UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Bi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mous…
—