Back to UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Stephens
Main Featherweight

Josh Emmett vs Jeremy Stephens

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Josh Emmett
Jeremy Stephens
71% 29%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
71"
33
Age
Δ 1y
32
20-7
Career record
Δ 17 pp
30-23
W2
Current streak
W2
5
UFC fights in our DB
19

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Emmett: 18 sig / 0 TD · Stephens: 24 sig / 0 TD
Josh Emmett
Jeremy Stephens
50
Sig strikes landed
54
121
Sig strikes attempted
140
60
Total strikes landed
59
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.50
Knockdowns
0.30
54s
Control time
66s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
4%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W2

Josh Emmett

20-7
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Lawler vs. Dos…
W UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Ti…
L UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2
W UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
W UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arl…
Blue corner
W2

Jeremy Stephens

"Lil' Heathen"
30-23 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 19 fights · 10-9
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. C…
W UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2
L UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
L UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
W UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Gar…