Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Stefan Struve
Andrei Arlovski
89%
11%
Why
84"
Reach
Δ 8"
77"
30
Age
Δ 9y
39
33-14
Career record
Δ 11 pp
35-24
L1
Current streak
W1
15
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Struve: 34 sig / 0 TD ·
Arlovski: 46 sig / 4 TD
Stefan Struve
Andrei Arlovski
40
Sig strikes landed
35
78
Sig strikes attempted
60
50
Total strikes landed
38
0.2
Takedowns landed
0.7
0.8
Takedowns attempted
3.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
54s
Control time
173s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Stefan Struve
"Skyscraper"
33-14
Career record
Height
83"
Reach
85"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
15 fights · 9-6
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Str…
—
W
UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arl…
—
L
UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm
—
W
UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia
—
Blue corner
W1
Andrei Arlovski
"The Pitbull"
35-24
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
10 fights · 5-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pe…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Corre…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. B…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arl…
—