Back to UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Brunson 2
Prelims2 Featherweight

Austin Arnett vs Cory Sandhagen

UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Brunson 2 ·Spectrum Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Austin Arnett
Cory Sandhagen
48% 52%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
26
Age
Δ 0y
26

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Arnett: 32 sig / 1 TD · Sandhagen: 80 sig / 1 TD
Austin Arnett
Cory Sandhagen
38
Sig strikes landed
38
82
Sig strikes attempted
78
50
Total strikes landed
51
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.0
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
120s
Control time
135s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
17%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Austin Arnett

0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
Blue corner

Cory Sandhagen

0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
70"
Stance
Switch
Age
26