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Jordan Rinaldi vs Gregor Gillespie

UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Brunson 2 ·Spectrum Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Jordan Rinaldi
Gregor Gillespie
38% 62%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 1"
71"
30
Age
Δ 1y
31
15-7
Career record
Δ 26 pp
15-1
W1
Current streak
W3
2
UFC fights in our DB
3

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Rinaldi: 7 sig / 0 TD · Gillespie: 34 sig / 1 TD
Jordan Rinaldi
Gregor Gillespie
15
Sig strikes landed
27
44
Sig strikes attempted
53
26
Total strikes landed
50
0.5
Takedowns landed
3.6
1.9
Takedowns attempted
4.2
0.00
Knockdowns
0.30
84s
Control time
308s
Method
Decision
30%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
33%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Jordan Rinaldi

"All Day"
15-7
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Mor…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Gar…
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Blue corner
W3

Gregor Gillespie

"The Gift"
15-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. B…
—
W UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2
—
W UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lan…
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