🏆 Title fight
Main
Heavyweight
Stipe Miocic vs Francis Ngannou
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou
·TD Garden
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Stipe Miocic
Francis Ngannou
60%
40%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 3"
83"
35
Age
Δ 4y
31
21-5
Career record
Δ 5 pp
18-3
W5
Current streak
W6
13
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Miocic: 70 sig / 6 TD ·
Ngannou: 21 sig / 0 TD
Stipe Miocic
Francis Ngannou
47
Sig strikes landed
43
84
Sig strikes attempted
91
82
Total strikes landed
47
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.4
3.2
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
256s
Control time
52s
Method
Decision
24%
KO/TKO
68%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W5
Stipe Miocic
21-5
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
13 fights · 11-2
Last 5
W
UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos
—
W
UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem
—
W
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
W
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt
—
Blue corner
W6
Francis Ngannou
"The Predator"
18-3
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
83"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
6 fights · 6-0
Last 5
W
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
—
W
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Abdu…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Do…
—