Back to UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. Choi
Prelims2 Featherweight

Mads Burnell vs Mike Santiago

UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. Choi ·Enterprise Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Mads Burnell
Mike Santiago
57% 43%
Why
69"
Reach
69"
24
Age
Δ 5y
28
9-4
Career record
Δ 10 pp
19-13
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Burnell: 20 sig / 3 TD · Santiago: 51 sig / 3 TD
Mads Burnell
Mike Santiago
29
Sig strikes landed
31
70
Sig strikes attempted
72
51
Total strikes landed
57
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.6
2.7
Takedowns attempted
3.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
122s
Control time
224s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
28%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Mads Burnell

9-4
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Str…
—
Blue corner
L1

Mike Santiago

19-13
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Str…
—