Back to UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Ortega
Prelims1 Bantamweight

Frankie Saenz vs Merab Dvalishvili

UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Ortega ·Save Mart Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Frankie Saenz
Merab Dvalishvili
20% 80%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
37
Age
Δ 10y
27
L3
Current streak
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6
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Saenz: 58 sig / 0 TD · Dvalishvili: 47 sig / 11 TD
Frankie Saenz
Merab Dvalishvili
40
Sig strikes landed
51
94
Sig strikes attempted
113
59
Total strikes landed
66
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.0
4.2
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
170s
Control time
126s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
13%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L3

Frankie Saenz

13-8
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database 6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
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L UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko
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L UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
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W UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Sa…
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W UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir
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Blue corner

Merab Dvalishvili

"The Machine"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27