Main
Featherweight
Cub Swanson vs Brian Ortega
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Ortega
·Save Mart Center
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Cub Swanson
Brian Ortega
58%
42%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
69"
34
Age
Δ 7y
27
32-14
Career record
Δ 8 pp
17-5
W4
Current streak
W4
13
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Swanson: 60 sig / 0 TD ·
Ortega: 24 sig / 0 TD
Cub Swanson
Brian Ortega
77
Sig strikes landed
61
157
Sig strikes attempted
158
79
Total strikes landed
75
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.7
0.9
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
24s
Control time
93s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Cub Swanson
32-14
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
13 fights · 10-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lo…
—
W
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
W
UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans
—
L
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
—
Blue corner
W4
Brian Ortega
"T-City"
17-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Switch
Age
27
In our database
5 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2
—
W
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2
—
W
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Hen…
—