Back to UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
Prelims2 Heavyweight

Justin Willis vs Allen Crowder

UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2 ·Little Caesars Arena
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Justin Willis
Allen Crowder
52% 48%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
30
Age
Δ 2y
28
W1
Current streak
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1
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Willis: 22 sig / 0 TD · Crowder: 15 sig / 0 TD
Justin Willis
Allen Crowder
39
Sig strikes landed
28
70
Sig strikes attempted
68
56
Total strikes landed
51
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
136s
Control time
126s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
12%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Justin Willis

"Big Pretty"
9-2
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
78"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Pon…
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Blue corner

Allen Crowder

"Pretty Boy"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28