Prelims2
Light Heavyweight
Jeremy Kimball vs Dominick Reyes
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
·Little Caesars Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Jeremy Kimball
Dominick Reyes
46%
54%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 5"
77"
27
Age
Δ 1y
28
16-8
Career record
Δ 11 pp
17-5
W1
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Kimball: 4 sig / 1 TD ·
Reyes: 16 sig / 1 TD
Jeremy Kimball
Dominick Reyes
11
Sig strikes landed
26
22
Sig strikes attempted
51
9
Total strikes landed
27
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.3
1.2
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
39s
Control time
207s
Method
Decision
12%
KO/TKO
66%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jeremy Kimball
16-8
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
27
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
—
L
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
—
Blue corner
W1
Dominick Reyes
"The Devastator"
17-5
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
—