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Main Welterweight

Robbie Lawler vs Rafael Dos Anjos

UFC Fight Night: Lawler vs. Dos Anjos ·Canada Life Centre
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Robbie Lawler
Rafael Dos Anjos
59% 41%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
36
Age
Δ 3y
33
31-16
Career record
Δ 0 pp
33-17
W1
Current streak
W2
11
UFC fights in our DB
20

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Lawler: 86 sig / 0 TD · Dos Anjos: 172 sig / 2 TD
Robbie Lawler
Rafael Dos Anjos
71
Sig strikes landed
68
140
Sig strikes attempted
154
87
Total strikes landed
78
0.3
Takedowns landed
1.6
1.3
Takedowns attempted
6.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
60s
Control time
174s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
11%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Robbie Lawler

"Ruthless"
31-16 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
36
In our database 11 fights · 9-2
Last 5
W UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2
—
L UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley
—
W UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
—
W UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
—
W UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II
—
Blue corner
W2

Rafael Dos Anjos

33-17
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database 20 fights · 15-5
Last 5
W UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2
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W UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Corre…
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L UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
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L UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
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W UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowbo…
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