Main
Welterweight
Demian Maia vs Colby Covington
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Machida
·Ginasio do Ibirapuera
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Demian Maia
Colby Covington
50%
50%
Why
72"
Reach
72"
40
Age
Δ 10y
30
28-12
Career record
Δ 8 pp
18-5
L1
Current streak
W4
20
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Maia: 53 sig / 0 TD ·
Covington: 88 sig / 0 TD
Demian Maia
Colby Covington
26
Sig strikes landed
25
53
Sig strikes attempted
97
51
Total strikes landed
64
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.9
6.6
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
178s
Control time
249s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
25%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Demian Maia
28-12
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
40
In our database
20 fights · 14-6
Last 5
L
UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2
—
W
UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos
—
W
UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit
—
W
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
W
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—
Blue corner
W4
Colby Covington
"Chaos"
18-5
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
8 fights · 7-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Corre…
—
W
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
—
W
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs T…
—
L
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—