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Main Middleweight

Derek Brunson vs Lyoto Machida

UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Machida ·Ginasio do Ibirapuera
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Derek Brunson
Lyoto Machida
70% 30%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 3"
74"
34
Age
Δ 6y
39
24-9
Career record
Δ 0 pp
24-9
W1
Current streak
L2
11
UFC fights in our DB
13

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Brunson: 10 sig / 0 TD · Machida: 3 sig / 0 TD
Derek Brunson
Lyoto Machida
31
Sig strikes landed
27
71
Sig strikes attempted
47
46
Total strikes landed
35
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.4
3.0
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
133s
Control time
57s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
16%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Derek Brunson

"The One"
24-9
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database 11 fights · 8-3
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt
—
L UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie
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L UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Jo…
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W UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowb…
—
Blue corner
L2

Lyoto Machida

"The Dragon"
24-9
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
39
In our database 13 fights · 6-7
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Rom…
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L UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
—
W UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dol…
—
L UFC 175: Weidman vs Machida
—
W UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mou…
—