Back to UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis
Prelims1 Lightweight

Sage Northcutt vs Michel Quinones

UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis ·Chartway Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Sage Northcutt
Michel Quinones
82% 18%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
73"
22
Age
Δ 11y
33
11-3
Career record
Δ 12 pp
8-4
L1
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Northcutt: 79 sig / 3 TD · Quinones: 55 sig / 0 TD
Sage Northcutt
Michel Quinones
39
Sig strikes landed
17
66
Sig strikes attempted
36
58
Total strikes landed
38
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.8
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
165s
Control time
107s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
16%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Sage Northcutt

"Super"
11-3
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
22
In our database 5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
—
W UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes
—
L UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
—
W UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—
W UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson
—
Blue corner
L1

Michel Quinones

"El Capo"
8-4
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
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