Prelims2
Heavyweight
Aleksei Oleinik vs Curtis Blaydes
UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre
·Madison Square Garden
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Aleksei Oleinik
Curtis Blaydes
91%
9%
Why
80"
Reach
80"
40
Age
Δ 14y
27
61-17-1
Career record
Δ 0 pp
20-6
W2
Current streak
W2
5
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
TKO - Doctor's Stoppage · Round 2
Oleinik: 34 sig / 0 TD ·
Blaydes: 39 sig / 4 TD
Aleksei Oleinik
Curtis Blaydes
24
Sig strikes landed
28
53
Sig strikes attempted
57
40
Total strikes landed
46
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
112s
Control time
140s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
51%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Aleksei Oleinik
"The Boa Constrictor"
61-17-1
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
40
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC 213: Romero vs. Whittaker
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. L…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swans…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Ste…
—
Blue corner
W2
Curtis Blaydes
"Razor"
20-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
4 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC 213: Romero vs. Whittaker
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Do…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Do…
—