Back to UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs. Gastelum
Main Featherweight

Wang Guan vs Alex Caceres

UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs. Gastelum ·Mercedes-Benz Arena
Previous fight Next fight

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Wang Guan
Alex Caceres
81% 19%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
32
Age
Δ 2y
29
—
Current streak
W1
0
UFC fights in our DB
17

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Guan: 71 sig / 0 TD · Caceres: 49 sig / 0 TD
Wang Guan
Alex Caceres
43
Sig strikes landed
53
100
Sig strikes attempted
115
59
Total strikes landed
64
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.4
3.5
Takedowns attempted
0.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
197s
Control time
45s
Method
Decision
63%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
13%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Wang Guan

"The Dongbei Tiger"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
Blue corner
W1

Alex Caceres

"Bruce Leeroy"
22-15 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database 17 fights · 8-8
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Corre…
—
L UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
—
L UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
W UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2
—
W UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
—