Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Matt Frevola
Luke Flores
55%
45%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 2"
73"
27
Age
Δ 2y
30
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Frevola: 20 sig / 2 TD ·
Flores: 18 sig / 0 TD
Matt Frevola
Luke Flores
34
Sig strikes landed
35
68
Sig strikes attempted
77
51
Total strikes landed
53
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.3
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
157s
Control time
165s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Matt Frevola
"The SteamRolla"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
Blue corner
Luke Flores
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30