Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Nick Urso
Jordan Espinosa
52%
48%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 3"
70"
32
Age
Δ 4y
28
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Urso: 5 sig / 0 TD ·
Espinosa: 7 sig / 0 TD
Nick Urso
Jordan Espinosa
35
Sig strikes landed
37
72
Sig strikes attempted
79
49
Total strikes landed
54
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.3
2.6
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
152s
Control time
206s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Nick Urso
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
Blue corner
Jordan Espinosa
"The Gamer"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28