Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Mark Cherico
Mike Santiago
61%
39%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 0"
69"
31
Age
Δ 3y
28
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Cherico: 11 sig / 1 TD ·
Santiago: 22 sig / 0 TD
Mark Cherico
Mike Santiago
33
Sig strikes landed
40
70
Sig strikes attempted
82
50
Total strikes landed
56
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.5
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
198s
Control time
116s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Mark Cherico
"The Pride of Bloomfield"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
Blue corner
Mike Santiago
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28