Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Steven Peterson
Benito Lopez
48%
52%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 3"
73"
27
Age
Δ 4y
23
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Peterson: 82 sig / 2 TD ·
Lopez: 77 sig / 0 TD
Steven Peterson
Benito Lopez
39
Sig strikes landed
37
80
Sig strikes attempted
81
55
Total strikes landed
54
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.3
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
158s
Control time
175s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Steven Peterson
"Ocho"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
Blue corner
Benito Lopez
"Golden Boy"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Switch
Age
23