Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Martin Day
Jaime Alvarez
53%
47%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 4"
69"
29
Age
Δ 1y
29
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Day: 68 sig / 1 TD ·
Alvarez: 41 sig / 1 TD
Martin Day
Jaime Alvarez
34
Sig strikes landed
33
77
Sig strikes attempted
72
46
Total strikes landed
46
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.2
0.9
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
169s
Control time
178s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Martin Day
"The Spartan"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
Blue corner
Jaime Alvarez
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29