Prelims1
Lightweight
Anthony Rocco Martin vs Olivier Aubin-Mercier
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. Branch
·PPG Paints Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Anthony Rocco Martin
Olivier Aubin-Mercier
68%
32%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 3"
70"
28
Age
Δ 1y
29
18-6
Career record
Δ 4 pp
12-5
W3
Current streak
W2
7
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Martin: 15 sig / 0 TD ·
Aubin-Mercier: 20 sig / 4 TD
Anthony Rocco Martin
Olivier Aubin-Mercier
31
Sig strikes landed
29
75
Sig strikes attempted
63
49
Total strikes landed
53
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.5
2.8
Takedowns attempted
3.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
175s
Control time
147s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Anthony Rocco Martin
18-6
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare
—
W
UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2
—
Blue corner
W2
Olivier Aubin-Mercier
"The Canadian Gangster"
12-5
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
—
W
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs T…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Ol…
—
W
UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi
—