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Main Heavyweight

Fabricio Werdum vs Marcin Tybura

UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tybura ·Qudos Bank Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Fabricio Werdum
Marcin Tybura
41% 59%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 1"
78"
40
Age
Δ 8y
32
25-9-1
Career record
Δ 0 pp
28-11
W1
Current streak
W3
10
UFC fights in our DB
4

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Werdum: 155 sig / 1 TD · Tybura: 127 sig / 1 TD
Fabricio Werdum
Marcin Tybura
60
Sig strikes landed
48
110
Sig strikes attempted
108
75
Total strikes landed
60
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.8
Takedowns attempted
3.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
89s
Control time
146s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
13%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Fabricio Werdum

"Vai Cavalo"
25-9-1
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
40
In our database 10 fights · 8-2
Last 5
W UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee
—
L UFC 213: Romero vs. Whittaker
—
W UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem
—
L UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
W UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum
—
Blue corner
W3

Marcin Tybura

"Tybur"
28-11
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Corre…
—
W UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2
—
W UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Do…
—