Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Daniel Jolly
Alonzo Menifield
30%
70%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 1"
76"
33
Age
Δ 3y
30
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
TKO - Doctor's Stoppage · Round 1
Jolly: 8 sig / 2 TD ·
Menifield: 9 sig / 0 TD
Daniel Jolly
Alonzo Menifield
30
Sig strikes landed
39
69
Sig strikes attempted
76
40
Total strikes landed
57
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.9
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
81s
Control time
159s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
50%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Daniel Jolly
"The Werewolf of Texas"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
Blue corner
Alonzo Menifield
"Atomic"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30