Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Kyle Stewart
Jason Jackson
62%
38%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
78"
28
Age
Δ 2y
27
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Stewart: 7 sig / 2 TD ·
Jackson: 12 sig / 0 TD
Kyle Stewart
Jason Jackson
37
Sig strikes landed
35
75
Sig strikes attempted
76
53
Total strikes landed
48
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.0
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
158s
Control time
115s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Kyle Stewart
"Gunz Up"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
Blue corner
Jason Jackson
"Jah-Son"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27