Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ryan Spann
Karl Roberson
81%
19%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 5"
74"
26
Age
Δ 1y
27
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Spann: 1 sig / 0 TD ·
Roberson: 5 sig / 0 TD
Ryan Spann
Karl Roberson
38
Sig strikes landed
28
78
Sig strikes attempted
58
57
Total strikes landed
46
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.7
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
143s
Control time
130s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Ryan Spann
"Superman"
0-0
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
Blue corner
Karl Roberson
"Baby K"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27