Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Daniel Spohn
Angel De Anda
49%
51%
Why
33
Age
Δ 1y
32
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Spohn: 20 sig / 0 TD ·
De Anda: 18 sig / 0 TD
Daniel Spohn
Angel De Anda
31
Sig strikes landed
33
70
Sig strikes attempted
67
44
Total strikes landed
52
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
109s
Control time
149s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Daniel Spohn
"Dragon"
0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
Blue corner
Angel De Anda
"The Dream"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32