Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Felipe Arantes
Josh Emmett
54%
46%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 3"
70"
30
Age
Δ 3y
33
18-11-1
Career record
Δ 10 pp
19-8
L1
Current streak
L1
10
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Arantes: 43 sig / 0 TD ·
Emmett: 67 sig / 1 TD
Felipe Arantes
Josh Emmett
44
Sig strikes landed
46
115
Sig strikes attempted
116
55
Total strikes landed
66
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.8
3.8
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
147s
Control time
131s
Method
Decision
73%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Felipe Arantes
"Sertanejo"
18-11-1
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
10 fights · 5-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Ol…
—
L
UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mou…
—
Blue corner
L1
Josh Emmett
19-8
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2
—
W
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arl…
—