Back to UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Struve
Prelims1 Featherweight

Mike Santiago vs Zabit Magomedsharipov

UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Struve ·Ahoy Rotterdam
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Mike Santiago
Zabit Magomedsharipov
29% 71%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 4"
73"
28
Age
Δ 2y
26

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Santiago: 24 sig / 2 TD · Magomedsharipov: 45 sig / 1 TD
Mike Santiago
Zabit Magomedsharipov
34
Sig strikes landed
43
71
Sig strikes attempted
88
48
Total strikes landed
59
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
98s
Control time
166s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
18%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Mike Santiago

0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
Blue corner

Zabit Magomedsharipov

0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27