Prelims1
Lightweight
Michel Prazeres vs Mads Burnell
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Struve
·Ahoy Rotterdam
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Michel Prazeres
Mads Burnell
74%
26%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
69"
36
Age
Δ 13y
24
W4
Current streak
—
8
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Prazeres: 26 sig / 4 TD ·
Burnell: 10 sig / 0 TD
Michel Prazeres
Mads Burnell
41
Sig strikes landed
29
75
Sig strikes attempted
73
69
Total strikes landed
45
2.6
Takedowns landed
0.2
5.9
Takedowns attempted
0.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
293s
Control time
67s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Michel Prazeres
"Tractor"
27-4
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lan…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gaste…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs T…
—
Blue corner
Mads Burnell
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24