Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Sergio Pettis
Brandon Moreno
55%
45%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
24
Age
Δ 0y
24
19-5
Career record
Δ 12 pp
24-10-2
W3
Current streak
W3
8
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Pettis: 76 sig / 0 TD ·
Moreno: 45 sig / 4 TD
Sergio Pettis
Brandon Moreno
45
Sig strikes landed
37
111
Sig strikes attempted
110
59
Total strikes landed
52
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.2
3.2
Takedowns attempted
3.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
67s
Control time
141s
Method
Decision
59%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Sergio Pettis
19-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
W
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
—
W
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson
—
L
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
—
W
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II
—
Blue corner
W3
Brandon Moreno
"The Assassin Baby"
24-10-2
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lo…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournamen…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Do…
—