Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Jordan Mein
Belal Muhammad
57%
43%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 1"
72"
28
Age
Δ 1y
29
31-13
Career record
Δ 13 pp
25-5
L2
Current streak
W1
6
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Mein: 36 sig / 1 TD ·
Muhammad: 45 sig / 4 TD
Jordan Mein
Belal Muhammad
40
Sig strikes landed
43
101
Sig strikes attempted
102
52
Total strikes landed
71
0.5
Takedowns landed
2.2
1.0
Takedowns attempted
5.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
33s
Control time
234s
Method
Decision
59%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Jordan Mein
"Young Gun"
31-13
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
L
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
—
L
UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs D…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—
L
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melend…
—
Blue corner
W1
Belal Muhammad
"Remember the Name"
25-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie
—
L
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Jo…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—