Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Travis Browne
Aleksei Oleinik
6%
94%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 1"
80"
35
Age
Δ 5y
40
18-8-1
Career record
Δ 11 pp
61-17-1
L3
Current streak
W1
16
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Browne: 35 sig / 1 TD ·
Oleinik: 53 sig / 3 TD
Travis Browne
Aleksei Oleinik
24
Sig strikes landed
29
51
Sig strikes attempted
53
34
Total strikes landed
54
0.3
Takedowns landed
1.2
0.7
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
78s
Control time
156s
Method
Decision
18%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
54%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Travis Browne
"Hapa"
18-8-1
Career record
Height
78"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
16 fights · 9-6
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Brow…
—
L
UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem
—
L
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs C…
—
L
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
—
Blue corner
W1
Aleksei Oleinik
"The Boa Constrictor"
61-17-1
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
40
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. L…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swans…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Ste…
—