Main
Middleweight
Chris Weidman vs Kelvin Gastelum
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum
·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Chris Weidman
Kelvin Gastelum
44%
56%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 6"
72"
33
Age
Δ 7y
26
16-9
Career record
Δ 2 pp
21-11
L3
Current streak
W2
12
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Weidman: 36 sig / 7 TD ·
Gastelum: 26 sig / 0 TD
Chris Weidman
Kelvin Gastelum
41
Sig strikes landed
48
89
Sig strikes attempted
101
53
Total strikes landed
68
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.0
5.1
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.00
Knockdowns
0.40
153s
Control time
118s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Chris Weidman
"The All-American"
16-9
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
12 fights · 9-3
Last 5
L
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2
—
L
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
—
L
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—
W
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
—
W
UFC 175: Weidman vs Machida
—
Blue corner
W2
Kelvin Gastelum
21-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database
11 fights · 8-2
Last 5
W
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
—
W
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gaste…
—
W
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum
—
L
UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz
—