Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Joshua Burkman
Drew Dober
33%
67%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
37
Age
Δ 8y
29
28-17
Career record
Δ 2 pp
29-16
L3
Current streak
L1
7
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Burkman: 11 sig / 0 TD ·
Dober: 15 sig / 0 TD
Joshua Burkman
Drew Dober
29
Sig strikes landed
32
54
Sig strikes attempted
84
42
Total strikes landed
56
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
75s
Control time
151s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Joshua Burkman
"The People's Warrior"
28-17
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
7 fights · 1-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Ga…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Do…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Gar…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs T…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Ol…
—
Blue corner
L1
Drew Dober
29-16
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
8 fights · 3-4
Last 5
L
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
—
W
UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem
—
W
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
—
L
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic
—