Main
Welterweight
Gunnar Nelson vs Santiago Ponzinibbio
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio
·The SSE Hydro
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Gunnar Nelson
Santiago Ponzinibbio
38%
62%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 1"
73"
29
Age
Δ 2y
31
20-6-1
Career record
Δ 4 pp
32-9
W2
Current streak
W4
9
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Nelson: 5 sig / 0 TD ·
Ponzinibbio: 7 sig / 0 TD
Gunnar Nelson
Santiago Ponzinibbio
29
Sig strikes landed
33
65
Sig strikes attempted
73
42
Total strikes landed
46
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.4
3.6
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
113s
Control time
71s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Gunnar Nelson
"Gunni"
20-6-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
29
In our database
9 fights · 7-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. And…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arl…
—
L
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—
W
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story
—
Blue corner
W4
Santiago Ponzinibbio
"Argentine Dagger"
32-9
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Brow…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
W
UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Rom…
—