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Prelims1 Flyweight

Justin Scoggins vs Yuta Sasaki

UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Correia ·Singapore Indoor Stadium
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Justin Scoggins
Yuta Sasaki
44% 56%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 5"
71"
25
Age
Δ 3y
28
11-6
Career record
Δ 5 pp
21-7-2
L1
Current streak
L1
7
UFC fights in our DB
5

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Scoggins: 37 sig / 1 TD · Sasaki: 21 sig / 2 TD
Justin Scoggins
Yuta Sasaki
28
Sig strikes landed
35
54
Sig strikes attempted
72
51
Total strikes landed
50
1.9
Takedowns landed
1.5
3.1
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
159s
Control time
181s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
15%
Submission
45%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Justin Scoggins

11-6
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
66"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
25
In our database 7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogu…
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W UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs T…
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W UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
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L UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mous…
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L The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edga…
—
Blue corner
L1

Yuta Sasaki

"Ulka"
21-7-2
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database 5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie
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W UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arl…
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L UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dol…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Le
—