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Marcin Held vs Damir Hadzovic

UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Teixeira ·Ericsson Globe
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Marcin Held
Damir Hadzovic
85% 15%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
25
Age
Δ 5y
31
23-8
Career record
Δ 13 pp
14-9
L2
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Held: 31 sig / 4 TD · Hadzovic: 14 sig / 0 TD
Marcin Held
Damir Hadzovic
35
Sig strikes landed
27
88
Sig strikes attempted
69
64
Total strikes landed
44
1.8
Takedowns landed
0.6
4.3
Takedowns attempted
4.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
242s
Control time
85s
Method
Decision
64%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
14%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Marcin Held

23-8
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database 2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
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L UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
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Blue corner
L1

Damir Hadzovic

"The Bosnian Bomber"
14-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Do…
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