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Main Welterweight

Peter Sobotta vs Ben Saunders

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Peter Sobotta
Ben Saunders
68% 32%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 2"
78"
30
Age
Δ 4y
34
18-7-1
Career record
Δ 9 pp
23-13-2
W1
Current streak
W1
6
UFC fights in our DB
7

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Sobotta: 46 sig / 0 TD · Saunders: 19 sig / 0 TD
Peter Sobotta
Ben Saunders
28
Sig strikes landed
30
62
Sig strikes attempted
61
42
Total strikes landed
41
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.1
5.1
Takedowns attempted
0.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
232s
Control time
24s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
20%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Peter Sobotta

18-7-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database 6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. B…
L UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm
W UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs…
W UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousa…
L UFC 122: Marquardt vs Okami
Blue corner
W1

Ben Saunders

"Killa B"
23-13-2
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database 7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
L UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs C…
W UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao…
W UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic
W UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs D…