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Main Middleweight

Jack Hermansson vs Alex Nicholson

UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Teixeira ·Ericsson Globe
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Jack Hermansson
Alex Nicholson
77% 23%
Why
78"
Reach
78"
29
Age
Δ 2y
27
24-11
Career record
Δ 10 pp
7-5
L1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
3

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Hermansson: 23 sig / 1 TD · Nicholson: 1 sig / 0 TD
Jack Hermansson
Alex Nicholson
51
Sig strikes landed
40
98
Sig strikes attempted
95
75
Total strikes landed
49
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.2
3.0
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
156s
Control time
59s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
9%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Jack Hermansson

"The Joker"
24-11
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogu…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. B…
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Blue corner
L1

Alex Nicholson

"The Spartan"
7-5
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. L…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs T…
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