Back to Bellator 172: Fedor vs. Mitrione
Welterweight

Josh Koscheck vs Mauricio Alonso

Bellator 172: Fedor vs. Mitrione ·SAP Center at San Jose
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Josh Koscheck
Mauricio Alonso
77% 23%
Why
39
Age
Δ 2y
37
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Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Koscheck: 9 sig / 0 TD · Alonso: 27 sig / 0 TD
Josh Koscheck
Mauricio Alonso
44
Sig strikes landed
40
103
Sig strikes attempted
111
65
Total strikes landed
58
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.5
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
141s
Control time
137s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
15%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Josh Koscheck

0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
Blue corner
L1

Mauricio Alonso

13-8 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Age
37
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L Bellator 142: Dynamite 1
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