Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Luan Chagas
Jim Wallhead
59%
41%
Why
24
Age
Δ 9y
33
15-4-1
Career record
Δ 4 pp
29-12
L1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Chagas: 95 sig / 0 TD ·
Wallhead: 32 sig / 0 TD
Luan Chagas
Jim Wallhead
46
Sig strikes landed
49
111
Sig strikes attempted
127
63
Total strikes landed
71
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.8
3.3
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.40
Knockdowns
0.50
116s
Control time
43s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
5%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Luan Chagas
"Tarzan"
15-4-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
2 fights · 0-1
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lan…
—
D
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
Blue corner
L1
Jim Wallhead
"Judo"
29-12
Career record
Height
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. B…
—