Back to UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov
Prelims2 Flyweight

Hector Sandoval vs Matt Schnell

UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov ·Bridgestone Arena
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Hector Sandoval
Matt Schnell
58% 42%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 6"
70"
31
Age
Δ 4y
27
15-4
Career record
Δ 18 pp
17-11
W1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Sandoval: 32 sig / 3 TD · Schnell: 16 sig / 1 TD
Hector Sandoval
Matt Schnell
29
Sig strikes landed
28
48
Sig strikes attempted
58
45
Total strikes landed
38
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.9
4.8
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
159s
Control time
102s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
24%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Hector Sandoval

"Kid Alex"
15-4
Career record
Height
62"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
—
L UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley
—
Blue corner
L1

Matt Schnell

"Danger"
17-11 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L The Ultimate Fighter: Tournamen…
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