Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Gunnar Nelson
Alan Jouban
76%
24%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
29
Age
Δ 7y
35
20-6-1
Career record
Δ 2 pp
18-7
W1
Current streak
W3
8
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Nelson: 8 sig / 1 TD ·
Jouban: 17 sig / 0 TD
Gunnar Nelson
Alan Jouban
29
Sig strikes landed
29
62
Sig strikes attempted
54
40
Total strikes landed
41
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.3
3.0
Takedowns attempted
0.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
134s
Control time
63s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Gunnar Nelson
"Gunni"
20-6-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
29
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arl…
—
L
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—
W
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Br…
—
Blue corner
W3
Alan Jouban
"Brahma"
18-7
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir
—
L
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee
—