Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Brad Pickett
Marlon Vera
33%
67%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
38
Age
Δ 14y
24
25-15
Career record
Δ 2 pp
24-12-1
L2
Current streak
W1
13
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Pickett: 51 sig / 2 TD ·
Vera: 67 sig / 0 TD
Brad Pickett
Marlon Vera
30
Sig strikes landed
44
69
Sig strikes attempted
91
50
Total strikes landed
57
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.7
3.0
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.70
137s
Control time
97s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Brad Pickett
"One Punch"
25-15
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
13 fights · 5-8
Last 5
L
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
—
L
UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bispi…
—
L
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swans…
—
Blue corner
W1
Marlon Vera
"Chito"
24-12-1
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
24
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bispi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Sa…
—
L
UFC 180: Werdum vs Hunt
—