Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Joe Duffy
Reza Madadi
74%
26%
Why
73"
Reach
73"
29
Age
Δ 10y
39
17-5
Career record
Δ 6 pp
15-6
W1
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Duffy: 51 sig / 0 TD ·
Madadi: 28 sig / 2 TD
Joe Duffy
Reza Madadi
34
Sig strikes landed
24
78
Sig strikes attempted
51
44
Total strikes landed
36
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.1
Takedowns attempted
4.1
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
100s
Control time
136s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
34%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Joe Duffy
"Irish"
17-5
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Lei…
—
W
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
—
Blue corner
W1
Reza Madadi
"Mad Dog"
15-6
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arl…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Holohan vs Smo…
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Mousasi vs Lati…
—
L
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs S…
—