Prelims1
Lightweight
Francisco Trinaldo vs Kevin Lee
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Gastelum
·Centro de Formação Olímpica do Nordeste
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Francisco Trinaldo
Kevin Lee
51%
49%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 7"
77"
38
Age
Δ 14y
24
29-9
Career record
Δ 6 pp
19-8
W7
Current streak
W3
14
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Trinaldo: 25 sig / 0 TD ·
Lee: 15 sig / 1 TD
Francisco Trinaldo
Kevin Lee
46
Sig strikes landed
49
90
Sig strikes attempted
111
56
Total strikes landed
61
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.3
3.4
Takedowns attempted
4.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
92s
Control time
128s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W7
Francisco Trinaldo
"Massaranduba"
29-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
39
In our database
14 fights · 11-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lan…
—
W
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs C…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Ol…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves
—
Blue corner
W3
Kevin Lee
"The Motown Phenom"
19-8
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
9 fights · 7-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Ha…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joan…
—
W
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
—
L
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee
—